(Originally published in Economic Times Brand Equity, December 2020)
This is that time of the year, when many of us like me are under pressure to be ‘thought leaders’, predict and write about trends for the coming year. And we all attempt it in all earnestness.
But truth be told, most of these are hollow to say the least. For instance, a few years back, for over six years one prediction evolved every year in various forms and this is how it happened. Starting on the first year with ‘This is the year of mobile’ to a final version ‘Really, God promise, this year is the real year of real mobile’ on the sixth year with all variations in between. Not to mention about times when middle-east countries really panicked hearing that all oil will now be replaced with data, every complicated excel sheet got labelled as Big Data, and every mobile camera and face creams became AI enabled. This year the word is that we will have AI enabled masks.
Margaret Heffernan in her recent book, ‘Uncharted – How to Map the Future Together’ explores the origins of forecasting / prediction business with some fascinating stories and (explores) why is it so difficult. Forecasting gets it legitimacy from human being’s insatiable need to have certainty in our lives. It exploits our fear of uncertainty and ignorance. Ignorance because the future has not happened and therefore it cannot be proven.
Forecasting is rife with ideological bias, self-interest agendas and dramatization. Because the world has become increasingly complex and complex systems are difficult to predict (unlike complicated systems). Margaret quotes economist John Kenneth Galbraith who famously said ‘The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable’.
Alex Murrel, an author and a business strategist in his article ‘The forecasting fallacy’ talks about how marketers are prone to predictions. He analysed the websites of three big management consultancies and discovered that between them, there are over 15,000 predictions for years between 2025 to 2050, most of which he believes are fantasies and not forecasts. He backs his argument by historical data of predictions – from predicting recessions, interest rates, GDP, exchange rates and media spends – most or all of them that proved wrong.
As marketers, we love drama, visibility, hype and buzz. Without which we don’t know how to make things happen. So, take every prediction with a pinch of salt (iodised and doubly fortified).
But here is the thing. Our ability to laugh at ourselves comfortably, makes us more human. So, here is wishing you all a Happy New Year, and yes, we are open for business!